AGP Executive Report

India-Japan Economic Security Push: PM Modi and Japan PM Sanae Takaichi signed deals on economic security, AI, defence and health, aiming to deepen critical-minerals and semiconductor supply chains and lift Japanese investment in India beyond 10 trillion yen. Odisha Aluminium Mega-Project: IHC and Adani Enterprises will jointly develop an $11.5bn integrated greenfield aluminium project in Odisha, spanning alumina refining, smelting, captive power and downstream manufacturing. Banking Settlement Shock: Bank of Baroda agreed to pay US$600mn to settle the NMC Health legal dispute, with shares falling over 4% after the announcement. UAE AI Capital Raise: MGX said it raised $49bn (Dh180bn) for MGX Fund I from Gulf, elite and global institutional investors, targeting AI and advanced tech. Pakistan Energy Investment Talks: Shandong Xinxu met Pakistan’s petroleum minister to discuss long-term investment across upstream, refinery upgrades (FCC), offshore energy and energy-equipment manufacturing. ASEAN Maritime Assurance: Malaysia told Belgium that ASEAN will keep South China Sea access open, stressing neutrality and peace amid shipping disruption concerns. Court Tightens AI Use in India: India’s Supreme Court set aside NCLT/NCLAT orders after finding AI-generated, non-existent citations were used, warning of “zero tolerance” for unverified AI precedents. EV Import Bill Relief: SBI estimates EV adoption could cut India’s crude import costs by nearly Rs 1 lakh crore by 2030 if EVs reach a 20% vehicle share. Futu Investor Class Action: A US law firm filed a class action against Futu Holdings alleging regulatory non-compliance and overstated financials.

India-Japan Economic Security: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi arrives in New Delhi for a summit with Modi focused on semiconductors, critical minerals, pharma, clean energy and ICT, with Japan expected to push a roughly 2 trillion yen cooperation package to help shift supply chains away from China. Yen Shock Watch: Japan is reportedly changing tactics against yen short sellers, raising the risk of disruption spilling into the US Treasury market if intervention forces large reserve sales. Digital Payments Export: India’s UPI goes live in Greece via Eurobank-NIPL, adding to Digital India’s global push as UPI and DigiLocker scale. WhatsApp Crackdown: India orders WhatsApp to pause its “usernames” rollout and explain within three days over fraud and impersonation risks. Banking M&A: Emirates NBD is in talks to buy HSBC’s Turkey unit, signaling continued Middle East expansion. Market & Policy: RBI keeps Floating Rate Savings Bond coupon at 8.05% and India’s industrial output rises 5.1% in May. Food Inflation Risk: El Niño could intensify into a “Godzilla” scenario, threatening ASEAN food prices amid energy and fertiliser shocks. Jobs & Capex: PepsiCo and others plan thousands of new India jobs via manufacturing and GCC expansions, while Hero MotoCorp flags a Rs 3,200 crore Andhra Pradesh investment.

Japan–Bangladesh Energy Support: Japan agreed to lift assistance to Bangladesh’s energy sector from $312m to $500m, with talks also covering JICA-backed port, MRT and airport projects. India–Japan Summit: Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi for the 16th India-Japan annual summit, aiming to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, defence and supply chains. Japan Visa Tightening: New visa rules are pushing out some foreign residents and business owners, adding pressure as Japan also raises visa fees and departure taxes. China Outbound Investment Rules: China’s new outbound investment regulation took effect, giving authorities wider scope to review deals tied to “national security” and strategic sectors. China IPO Push in Semis: Chinese semiconductor firms are accelerating IPOs in 2026, with the STAR Market accepting filings for silicon photonics and storage controller chip makers. US–China Energy Tech Tension: The US is reportedly drafting a ban targeting imports of foreign-made energy inverters linked to Chinese products, raising cost concerns for solar and storage. Markets & FX: Foreign investors’ A-share holdings hit a record high in H1, while Japan’s yen weakness kept investors watching for policy moves. India Banking Tech: SBI rolled out YONO upgrades with AI features and expanded digital onboarding, while RBI leaders reiterated the inflation-target framework remains in place. Corporate Finance (India): JSW Infrastructure completed a ₹7,503 crore QIP, and India Home Loan signed a debt restructuring deal with IDFC FIRST Bank for ₹17.55 crore. Digital Safety (India): India asked Meta not to launch WhatsApp’s username feature until consultations are completed, citing fraud and impersonation risks. World Bank Funding: The World Bank approved a $100m concessional credit for Uzbekistan’s education program to improve primary learning outcomes.

UN Finance: The UN General Assembly approved a rule change that stops member states from demanding the return of unspent funds before paying contributions, aiming to protect “operational continuity” as the UN faces a $3.4bn 2026 regular budget and late payments from major contributors. China Outbound Investment: A new Chinese regulation on outbound investment takes effect, with state media arguing it’s a clearer, unified framework rather than a “fortress,” as it formalises reviews and “defensive measures” tied to trade barriers and tech/data controls. Japan Rates & Bonds: Japan’s Tankan survey lifted big-manufacturer confidence to an eight-year high, while yen weakness pushed longer-dated JGB yields higher, keeping markets focused on possible BOJ next steps. Banking Deal (India): Kotak Mahindra Bank signed to buy Deutsche Bank’s India retail, private banking and wealth units, adding about ₹29,000cr loans and ₹16,000cr deposits, with a target close by September next year. India Infrastructure Push: India’s Cabinet approved an extra Rs 30,000cr for the NIIF Infrastructure Fund II, targeting transport, energy, digital and electric mobility. Asia Markets: Southeast Asia opened mixed on July 1, with Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite down 5.48% while Thailand’s SET rose 2.1%. Japan Visa Shock: Japan’s tighter business manager visa rules threaten some foreign residents’ stay, adding uncertainty for small operators.

Banking Deal (Indonesia): Maybank Indonesia’s shareholders approved it as the operational holding company for the Maybank Financial Conglomerate, alongside majority-stake acquisitions in Maybank Asset Management, Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia and Asuransi Etiqa—aimed at a more integrated ASEAN-style financial ecosystem. Capital Markets (India): Kotak Mahindra Bank agreed to buy Deutsche Bank’s India retail, private banking and wealth management business for about Rs 281.7 crore, with ~1,000 employees expected to transfer, pending regulators. Market & Policy (India): RBI said India’s financial system is resilient and well-capitalised, while warning global risks remain elevated; separately, India’s GST collections for FY26 rose to ₹22.27 lakh crore. FX & Payments (Japan/India): Japan and India are considering a dollar-free yen-rupee settlement scheme to cut FX and remittance costs. Corporate Governance (Korea): Woori Financial’s bid to take Tongyang Life private is stalled as regulators demand more disclosure on the share-swap ratio. Legal/Investor Risk (China/US): A US court sentenced exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui to 30 years for a $1bn fraud tied to investment and crypto schemes. Energy & Trade (China/US): China made its first US soybean purchase for the new marketing year, a potential signal for trade normalization.

Japan FX Watch: Japan’s finance minister said authorities are ready to take “appropriate action” as the yen slid to a 40-year low, reviving intervention talk. Banking Leadership: HDFC Bank named Rajiv Kumar part-time chairman and approved CFO-designate Puneet Sharma, reshuffling top management. China Debt Clampdown: China’s NDRC urged banks to avoid underwriting offshore renminbi notes above 4% and dollar securities above 5% to curb high-cost local-government borrowing risks. EU-China Trade: Brussels launched a new China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanism with workstreams on export controls, IP, and WTO reform. Pacific Climate Finance: The GEF approved about $14m in grants (plus $43m co-financing) for four Pacific adaptation projects in Fiji, FSM, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. India Rail Milestone: India’s long-delayed Mumbai–Ahmedabad bullet train first section is set to run in 2027, with full service targeted for 2029. Crypto/Payments: Tether’s USDT saw a premium jump in India after a crypto payment crackdown. Corporate/Markets: DBS completed a $1bn significant risk transfer deal, its first of its kind for a Singapore bank. Fraud & Enforcement: Exiled Chinese tycoon Guo Wengui was sentenced to 30 years in the US for a $1.4bn fraud.

India EV Push: Delhi approved EV Policy 2.0 with a Rs 150bn outlay, including a scrappage cash incentive of about $1,060 for eligible car owners and road-tax/registration exemptions for certain EVs, plus a plan to register only electric two-wheelers from April 1, 2028 and expand charging to 32,000 points. IFSC Banking: Central Bank of India inaugurated its IFSC Banking Unit at GIFT City to serve foreign-currency funding needs with loans, trade finance and treasury products. Development Finance: India’s IIFCL plans a $1bn overseas loan (15 years, sub-7%) and is in talks for about $400m from the ADB, with a possible debut dollar bond later. Capital Markets & Banks: HDFC Bank appointed Rajiv Kumar as part-time non-executive chairman (subject to RBI/shareholder approvals). Bank of Baroda is considering up to $1bn senior unsecured notes for NRI foreign-currency deposits. FX Watch: MUFG flagged the Philippine peso as among Asia’s weakest currencies as US rates stay restrictive. Trade & Geopolitics: India and Maldives kicked off FTA talks (virtual, June 29–July 7) tied to UPI/RuPay and local-currency trade integration. Asia Industry: South Korea unveiled an $518bn semiconductor initiative with new Samsung and SK Hynix fabs.

Fraud-Fighting Tech: Japan’s Osaka police unveiled “AIko,” an AI avatar delivering scam warnings in plain language, targeting younger victims as fraud hits a record US$2bn. Connected MedTech Deal Risks: A Singapore MedTech summit spotlighted how cybersecurity gaps, compliance shortcuts and weak teams can quietly kill connected device deals. India Urban Cost Debate: A Bengaluru founder’s viral claim that ₹2.5 lakh is the new ₹1 lakh reignited India’s cost-of-living and rent-inflation debate. Banking & Markets: Morgan Stanley cut targets and downgraded TCS to equal-weight on AI-led derating fears; India’s banking re-rating thesis points to yield discipline and cheaper foreign funding. China Macro & Policy: Reuters poll suggests China’s factory activity barely returns to growth; the PBOC launched its first overnight reverse repo without disclosing the rate. China Trade Tensions: Beijing expanded export controls on Japan with 40 entities hit, escalating the trade war. Commodities Court Ruling: India’s Bombay High Court dismissed traders’ pleas over MCX’s 2020 negative crude settlement. AI IPO Watch: China’s Momenta launched its Hong Kong IPO aiming for up to $751m. Pacific Security: Australia and Vanuatu signed a delayed security pact to curb militarisation concerns in the Pacific. Corporate Moves: Bluspring’s shares jumped on a Vedanta Power O&M contract extension; Likhitha surged after a ₹510 crore pipeline order; Tilaknagar Industries increased its stake in Bartisans to 41.45%.

Bangladesh-China Investment Push: Twelve Chinese firms have proposed about $9.21bn in Bangladesh across ports, highways, waste-to-energy and education after PM Tarique Rahman’s China visit, with Mongla Port expansion and a Dhaka–Chattogram highway PPP among the biggest plans. India–US Tech Partnership: India and the US are moving from talks to projects on semiconductors, AI, quantum and critical minerals, with USISPF discussions focused on resilient supply chains and trusted technology ecosystems. India–Seychelles Deals: PM Modi’s Seychelles visit produced agreements spanning trade, digital payments, defence, health and UPI, with maritime security and Indian Ocean cooperation front and centre. Philippines Offshore Wind Financing: Finance chief Frederick Go is advancing the 901MW San Miguel Bay offshore wind project with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners ahead of a green energy auction and financing talks. Japan Bond Market Tweaks: Japan’s finance ministry is considering expanding government bonds for individuals, including ideas like inflation-linked and longer maturities as BOJ normalisation changes demand. China Gold Rules Update: China is drafting revisions to gold import/export regulations to streamline cross-border movement management for individuals and improve customs supervision. Hong Kong as Global Finance Bridge: Hong Kong’s finance chief says the city acts as a “super converter” helping mainland firms go global via standards, capital and IP protection. India Market Flows & Tax Shift: JP Morgan says recent tax and policy changes make Indian equities more attractive, supporting domestic inflows even as returns stay muted. AI for Public Audit: India launched an AI-enabled Rural Internal Audit Portal to replace paper-heavy internal audits with real-time dashboards and analytics. Crypto Payments Expansion: SQRIL is expanding its stablecoin-to-QR payments push into Central Asia, pitching lower fees and wider merchant acceptance versus card rails.

India Precision Medicine Push: Science minister Jitendra Singh says India is building homegrown capabilities in gene therapy and nuclear medicine, using its genetic diversity to tailor treatment and position the country as a healthcare innovation hub. Renewables Climate Risk: Zurich Group warns 90% of India’s planned renewable sites face high or critical physical climate risk by 2030, urging action now to protect the 267 GW pipeline. Oil Import Vulnerability: EY cautions India’s crude import dependence has climbed to above 90% and urges bigger strategic reserves plus faster refining and alternative energy, including nuclear. Amazon Doubles Down on India Cloud/AI: Amazon plans an extra $13bn investment (total $48bn to 2030) to expand AWS capacity in Mumbai and Hyderabad. Bangladesh-China Investment Surge: Eleven Chinese firms propose $9.21bn for Bangladesh, spanning gas, waste-to-energy and a Mongla port economic zone. Kerala FD Ruling: Kerala High Court orders a bank to repay a matured Rs 5 lakh FD with 12% interest and compensation after “technical issues.” India-US Tech Partnership: India and the US deepen cooperation in semiconductors, AI, quantum and critical minerals via senior-level talks. Crypto Regulation Stakes (US): A strategist warns the CLARITY Act debate could shift global digital-asset standard-setting power toward China if Washington stalls. Japan Crypto/Payments: Ripple partners with SBI Holdings for Japan’s RLUSD stablecoin launch after JFSA approval, with initial transaction limits. Japan Property Headwinds: Higher tourist visa fees and Bank of Japan rate normalization may pressure foreign real-estate investors and rental yields. Gold Moves Higher: Gold and silver prices rise across Indian cities on safe-haven demand. Aviation/Finance Stress: ICRA flags deeper airline losses in FY27 (₹36,000–38,000 crore) tied to West Asia risk, FX and ATF costs. Banking Holiday Watch: RBI lists limited bank closures next week, with key regional holidays to check before branch visits.

India-UK Trade Push: Piyush Goyal says India will deploy 1,000 advisers and upgrade the trade portal to help firms maximise India-UK CETA benefits as the pact rolls out. EU Carbon Cost Shock: An ICRIER study warns EU CBAM could cut India’s steel exports to the bloc by 24%, with broader spillovers across metals and fertilisers. Growth Outlook: EY expects India’s FY27 real GDP growth at 6.6–6.8%, citing easing energy prices and potential Strait of Hormuz normalisation. West Asia Risk Check: Crisil says reopening the Strait of Hormuz should halve the hit to India Inc’s margins, but escalation risk remains. Banking Leadership Watch: Kotak Mahindra Bank CEO Ashok Vaswani will step down at end-2026; succession planning is underway. HDFC Bank Legal Noise: HDFC says an external legal review found no basis for ex-chair Atanu Chakraborty’s claims, as he questions the review’s scope. Central Banking & Gold: A BIS-linked report highlights central banks’ gold buying surge, with official holdings at the highest since 1975. Qatar–China Finance Links: Qatar Central Bank governor meets China’s central bank chief to deepen banking and finance cooperation. AI in India’s Economy: OpenAI appoints Uber India’s Prabhjeet Singh as India managing director, while a study finds 57% of Indian MSMEs now see AI as core to growth.

ASEAN Tech Push: ASEAN opened its 22nd Science, Technology and Innovation ministerial meeting in Vientiane, aiming to advance the 2026-2035 APASTI agenda and boost investment in education, research and entrepreneurship. China–Cambodia Ties: Beijing signalled it wants to deepen strategic coordination with Phnom Penh across development and security, as Cambodia’s top leaders wrapped up a China visit. FX Caution in Southeast Asia: Analysts expect central banks across the region to stay cautious on currencies as the US dollar and Fed policy keep pressure on Asian FX, even with oil-price relief. HDFC Bank Governance Review: HDFC Bank said external legal firms found no basis for former chair Atanu Chakraborty’s claims, after a three-month review. India Growth Upgrade: Goldman Sachs lifted India’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran peace deal lowered oil-price risks. SEBI vs Anil Ambani: SEBI rejected Anil Ambani group settlement pleas in the Reliance Infrastructure fund diversion case. GIFT City Spotlight: India’s GIFT City will showcase its role as an international financial gateway at the Vibrant Gujarat Regional Summit, highlighting banking and fund-management scale. ADB Clean Energy for Sri Lanka: ADB approved a $57.4m package for rooftop solar aggregation and virtual net metering to expand affordable clean power. US–China Tech Security: US lawmakers warned China is targeting AI and advanced tech through cyber espionage and commercial investments, while debating how to respond without harming civil liberties. Apple vs Chip Curbs: Apple lobbied the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from blacklisted CXMT, underscoring AI supply-chain cost and security constraints. India–Dollar Liquidity Move: RBI lifted rate caps on select NRI deposits (FCNR(B) and NRE), a move seen as aimed at attracting more foreign-currency inflows. China Industrial Profit Trend: China’s industrial profits rose 21.1% in May but slowed, reflecting property drag and uneven sector performance.

EU-China Auto Clash: The European Commission is preparing anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese-made plug-in hybrids, even as Chinese brands keep gaining share in Europe—Q1 exports to Europe jumped 84.7% y/y and Chinese market share hit 9.8% by April. Sovereign Funding in Asia: Brazil has started the process for its first “panda bond” issuance in China to broaden funding sources for green and innovation projects. China’s Power Buildout: China’s installed generation capacity crossed 4.01 billion kW by end-May, with renewables at 61% and non-fossil at 62%. India-UK Trade Push: Piyush Goyal says India-UK CETA is built for “transformational growth” and job creation as implementation nears July 15. Payments for Regional Integration: India’s UPI/RuPay push continues with cross-border person-to-person digital transactions operationalised with Nepal. Banking & Crypto: Japan’s SBI Holdings agreed to buy Bitbank for about $289m, aiming to expand ahead of tighter crypto regulation. Bangladesh-China Ties: Xi pledged long-term support for Bangladesh’s development as PM Tarique Rahman’s China visit delivered 17 MoUs. Energy Security Shift: The IEA says the Iran war is reshaping energy investment priorities toward security and grid resilience over pure climate targets.

India–US Trade Talks: India and the US wrapped another round of trade pact talks, with officials calling it “very close” but leaving the hardest tariff and market-access issues for later. Amazon’s India Bet: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy pledged $48bn by 2030, with an extra $13bn aimed at AWS cloud and AI data centres—signalling the real prize is infrastructure, not retail. Bangladesh–China Pivot: PM Tarique Rahman met Xi Jinping in Beijing as Bangladesh and China signed 13 MoUs, underlining deepening trade and investment ties. India Policy Watch: India mandated QR codes on vaccines and key medicines to fight counterfeits, but the impact will hinge on whether the supply-chain can actually verify in time. Banking & Markets: SEBI proposed a Common Advertisement Code that would ban rewards tied to opening accounts or boosting trading—pushing brokers toward product and education over promotions. Energy & Industry: Adani Airports plans over ₹200bn to build airport-linked “city” districts across six locations, while India also looks to broaden textile manufacturing beyond Tirupur and Surat.

Big Tech Capital Flows: Amazon says it will invest $48bn in India (2026-2030) after Andy Jassy met PM Modi, including $21bn+ for AI and cloud plus logistics expansion and job creation. Regulatory/Markets: India’s SEBI eases certification for non-advisory staff at investment advisory firms, creating a lighter exam route for sales and client-servicing roles. Cross-border Trade: India-UK CETA is set to enter force July 15, 2026, with Piyush Goyal pitching it as a trade and investment unlock. Japan Crypto Consolidation: SBI Holdings agrees to buy Bitbank for ¥46.7bn ($289m), aiming to build Japan’s largest crypto exchange by custody assets. Climate & Finance: SMBC invests in Deep Sky to scale Japan’s DAC carbon removal credits. Regional Growth Pressure: S&P cuts the Philippines 2026 growth forecast to 4.1% as infrastructure spending and energy shocks bite. China-Bangladesh Deals: Tarique Rahman’s Beijing visit yields 13 MoUs spanning trade, investment, green development and concessional loans. Energy Infrastructure: China’s SANY backs Serbia wind farms Alibunar 1 & 2 with €240m. Social Investment: UNICEF urges Fiji to prioritize early childhood spending in the 2026-27 budget. Risk Watch: Singapore faces a red-alert haze risk in late 2026-27 as El Niño returns.

Sustainable Finance & Transition: Singapore’s DBS backed Asia energy-transition vehicle ETAFCo with US$210m in senior debt, targeting renewables, grid upgrades and storage as part of Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership. China Governance & Risk: China’s National Audit Office flagged Bank of China for tax evasion and improper lending via disguised private funds, underscoring Beijing’s push to rein in financial risks. Japan Monetary Policy: Japan’s government draft long-term blueprint urges the BOJ to support private demand and keep borrowing costs low, shaping the path of future rate hikes. Offshore Finance: Beijing’s push to expand Shanghai’s offshore finance—via FX trading and offshore bonds/trade financing plans—raises questions about Hong Kong’s offshore crown. Cross-border Trade: The WTO agreed to form a panel on China’s complaint against India’s solar, module and IT goods measures, moving the dispute forward. Energy & Markets: China’s independent refiners cut runs to the weakest since 2017 as margins stay squeezed by feedstock costs and weak demand. Banking & Deals: Kotak Mahindra Bank stays a “Buy” for MOFSL, with liability franchise and SME/mortgage momentum in focus. Regional Growth: S&P Global expects India real GDP growth of 6.6% in FY27 amid energy stress and a sub-par monsoon. Tourism & Travel: New Zealand’s visa-waiver trial for Chinese visitors via Australia lifted arrivals by 40% and boosted tourism spending. AI in Finance: Japan’s three megabanks became eligible to use Google’s advanced AI tool to bolster defenses against cyberattacks.