AGP Executive Report

Banking Leadership: HDFC Bank named ICICI veteran Anup Bagchi as MD & CEO for three years from Oct 27, after RBI cleared the appointment in about 20 days, replacing Sashidhar Jagdishan. Banking Regulation: RBI also approved Kotak Mahindra Bank CEO Anup Saha for a three-year term starting Jan 1, 2027, as it continues easing rules for funds/insurers buying bank stakes. Pensions & Infra: India’s PFRDA said NPS may be allowed to invest in large infrastructure via AIFs within two years, aiming for “patient capital” for 10–15 years. AI Infrastructure: Japan’s JERA, Dell and RHAELM plan AI data centres worth up to $140bn, starting with a 400MW Chiba project. Energy & Trade: Canada listed the Alberta–B.C. West Coast pipeline “Pacific Link” as a project of national interest, targeting shovels by Sept 1, 2027, while West Asia supply risks are pushing fertiliser prices higher and raising corn/soy costs. Capital Markets & Deals: SoftBank completed its $30bn investment in OpenAI; AsiaStrategy signed an MoU with Plume to explore tokenised real-world asset products across Asia. Geopolitics & Policy: G20 trade ministers backed a statement against “weaponization of food” through coercive trade actions, with India pushing for policy flexibility for developing economies.

Philippines Finance & Courts: The Senate impeachment court approved subpoenas for bank and insurance representatives plus the BIR in Vice President Sara Duterte’s trial, with AMLC chief Ronel Buenaventura set to testify next. South Korea–US Energy Deals: Trump announced up to $200bn in South Korean energy investments in the US, including $54bn for Alaska LNG (Seoul still weighing commercial viability) and a $22.3bn Texas gas plant tied to data-center power. Japan Rates & Flows: Japanese bonds saw the biggest weekly foreign outflow in six months as BOJ tightening signals and a global bond selloff pushed yields higher. India Banking Leadership: RBI approved Kotak Mahindra Bank’s Anup Kumar Saha as MD & CEO for three years from Jan 1, 2027, as investors watch growth and retail momentum. India Data-Centres & Power: Schneider Electric expects its India data-centre business to outgrow the rest of the company, while a MoU with Networks for Humanity targets pilots for an India Digital Energy Grid. Pakistan Power Transition: Solar growth is pressuring Chinese-backed coal plants by cutting grid demand and stressing utility repayment economics. ASEAN Trade Connectivity: Malaysia and Singapore discussed boosting intra-ASEAN trade via supply-chain and digital-economy links under DEFA. Fraud & Cybercrime: Police arrested five in a call-centre scam targeting elderly Japanese nationals, using screen-sharing and OTPs to siphon funds via hawala.

AIIB Financing Push: India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman urged the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to broaden financing beyond physical infrastructure into AI, MSMEs and skilling, while reaffirming support for AIIB’s 2027 priorities. US-China Trade Truce: The US and China agreed on about $60bn in tariff cuts for non-sensitive goods, aiming to ease inflation and help exporters manage overcapacity. China Growth Signal: China’s factory activity inched back into expansion in September, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1, alongside a stronger non-manufacturing PMI. Apple Pay in India: Apple Pay launched in India via Axis Bank, expanding contactless payments for iPhone and Apple Watch users as UPI dominates local digital transactions. Banking Leadership in Qatar: AlRayan Bank appointed Usman Ahmed as Group CEO, with Omar al-Emadi acting from Oct 1 until the transition. Corporate/Industrial Moves: Toyota announced a record investment under Argentina’s RIGI scheme, while CNH India reported margin gains from lower material costs and product mix changes. Energy & Capital Flows: South Korea’s central bank plans its first physical gold purchase in 13 years, and US EB-5 investor fees were raised sharply from Nov 30. Geopolitics & Tech Security: MI5 accused a Chinese institute of funding UK AI and other sensitive research tied to espionage, and Trump rejected joint AI safety efforts with China.

Payments & Banking: Apple Pay officially goes live in India with Axis Bank-issued Visa and Mastercard credit cards, enabling tap-and-pay without PIN/OTP at participating in-store and online merchants, as Apple targets a fast-growing cashless market dominated by UPI. Capital Markets & Funding: India’s Capital India Finance raises ₹100 crore via secured NCDs (10% fixed coupon, 27-month tenor) to expand secured MSME and retail lending; BHN also lifts $5m green bonds from Symbiotics for rooftop solar, EV and clean-tech MSME financing. Corporate & Investor Watch: Elevate Campuses’ IPO debut is muted on growth and leverage concerns, while Linux Laboratories raises $70m with ChrysCapital taking a minority stake and Tata Capital Healthcare exiting its earlier fund. Macro & Policy: China’s factory PMI edges back to expansion in September and non-manufacturing PMI rises to 50.2, alongside new mortgage-interest subsidies; Standard Chartered’s China CEO says the yuan won’t replace the dollar soon, though it may pressure yen/pound. Regional Deals: India and Qatar agree to fast-track BIT/FTA talks and push a Qatar Investment Authority office in India tied to a $10bn investment plan. Governance & Risk: India’s CAG flags financial irregularities in Odisha’s 5T High School Transformation Programme. Tech & Crypto: Binance launches “Academania Skill-Up” across South Asia to boost blockchain/digital-asset literacy as adoption outpaces understanding. Energy & Trade: Canada’s LNG Canada approves Phase 2 expansion to 28m tonnes annually, aiming to deepen LNG exports to Asia.

Regulatory Watch: China’s securities regulator is tightening IPO rules for humanoid “embodied AI” startups, pushing firms to show sustainable revenue, commercial orders and core tech, with expectations for listings in Hong Kong likely shrinking. Payments & Banking: Apple Pay is set to launch in India with Axis Bank as the initial partner, starting with limited card support and merchant acceptance, while negotiations leave some major banks out at launch. Cross-border Finance: India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met Qatar’s business leaders in Doha to expand investment and trade ties, highlighting sectors for private-sector partnerships. Geopolitics & Trade: Taiwan plans a second trade office in the Philippines as Manila and Taipei deepen cooperation amid Chinese pressure in the South China Sea. Capital Flows: CPP Investments will put $441m into India’s Prestige Hospitality Ventures for a 27% stake, its first direct India hospitality bet. Industry & Exports: China’s excavator exports outpaced domestic sales in the first eight months, rising 31.8% year-on-year. Tech & IP: TriLink BioTechnologies secured an additional China patent for CleanCap RNA technology, expanding its local IP protection. Sanctions: Japan lifted partial sanctions on Syria, signaling support for reconstruction while keeping restrictions on individuals and some entities.

US–China Trade: The two sides agreed on reciprocal tariff cuts on select goods worth about $60bn, with product lists covering items from US corn and cosmetics to Chinese toys and household appliances. APEC Business: US firms are actively signing up for the APEC CEO Summit in Shenzhen, with major names already registering, signaling renewed corporate engagement ahead of Nov 17-18. China Tech Finance: China’s tech insurance market is expanding fast, with coverage reaching 8.7tn yuan for innovation risk-sharing, while generative AI users topped 700m in H1 2026. India FX & Rates: India’s RBI drained nearly $20bn of excess rupee liquidity via FX operations, as markets brace for the Oct 5-7 MPC; bank stocks slid sharply, with Nifty Bank dropping below 54k. Renewables Funding: IRFC signed an INR 4,200 crore term loan to back solar and BESS projects in Jharkhand and West Bengal. Cybercrime Risk: An IIT Madras study found financial cybercrime victims in India are often highly educated professionals, targeted during stress periods. Banking & Markets: Sri Lanka’s NDB disclosed a higher fraud amount after a Deloitte forensic review, raising fresh governance concerns. Climate Finance: Qatar’s finance minister urged stronger policy and risk-sharing to scale climate finance at the AIIB annual meeting in Doha. Payments & Fraud: Mastercard holders in China reported a new wave of unauthorized overseas transactions, prompting issuer investigations and reversals. Corporate Appointments: Antom named new SE Asia and country leadership, while HSBC Private Bank appointed a new APAC family and philanthropy advisory head.

US–China Trade Truce: The two sides agreed to tariff cuts on $60bn of goods, with $30bn of “non-sensitive” items each side getting more favorable treatment, though the size and timing of reductions weren’t specified. AI Risk Management: Washington and Beijing set up a direct AI crisis communication channel aimed at preventing misunderstandings during AI-related emergencies. China Tariff Moves: China said it added US coal to the $30bn mutual tariff-cut list and plans to expand imports in 2027–2028. Commodities: Copper slid to a more-than-week low as weaker China data and a firmer dollar dented demand expectations. India FDI Facilitation: India is strengthening investor support in Europe via an EFTA desk and is preparing an updated BIT framework to boost foreign direct investment. Payments Expansion: Trinidad and Tobago will adopt India’s UPI, marking the first Caribbean rollout as part of a wider bilateral push. India Market Mood: Sensex and Nifty fell more than 5% over a month, with investors citing crude, geopolitics and higher yields. Tamil Nadu Health Push: Newborns in government hospitals in Tamil Nadu receive a free one-gram gold ring, aiming to boost confidence in public healthcare.

US–China Trade Reset: The US and China agreed on reciprocal tariff cuts for about $30bn of non-sensitive goods, with most products to move toward most-favored-nation rates and a trade-truce extension to Jan 10, 2027. Banking & Markets: Japan’s top FX diplomat warned markets to take Tokyo-Washington’s “very clear” message on the yen at face value, as the currency stays under pressure. China Capital Markets: ChinaAMC (HK) launched three new ETFs in Hong Kong, adding dividend, growth and a HK-US “HALO” theme ahead of listings. China Wealth Rules: New offshore trust rules are drawing fresh scrutiny from cross-border private wealth advisers, with focus on residence tests, disposal treatment and how enforcement may follow data. India Rates & Stocks: India’s 10-year yield jumped to a two-year high on longer-dated bond supply and global yield pressure, while Sensex and Nifty slid sharply, wiping out about ₹6 lakh crore. India Consumer Demand: BCG-CII expects India’s consumer durables market to grow 8–10% annually to ₹3–3.25 lakh crore by 2030, even as price hikes hit near-term affordability. Cross-Border Payments: UnionPay rolled out a smart payment support plan for the APEC “China Year,” aiming to smooth inbound payments in Shenzhen. Development Finance: IsDB and AIIB leaders met in Doha to review progress and explore deeper co-financing, including Islamic finance and regional connectivity.

Hong Kong-Qatar Dealmaking: In Doha, the Qatari Businessmen Association met Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan to explore new investment partnerships in financial services, healthcare, logistics, tech and innovation, with an emphasis on asset management and cross-Asia expansion. AIIB Infrastructure Push: Doha will host the AIIB 11th Annual Meeting starting Monday under “Tomorrow’s Infrastructure: Impact and Innovation,” as Qatar’s finance minister chairs the governors’ board; India’s Nirmala Sitharaman is also set to attend and hold bilateral meetings. India Bank Strike Deferred: India’s planned three-day nationwide bank strike (Sept 28-30) was called off after UFBU and the Indian Banks’ Association agreed to form a high-level committee on five-day banking and to discuss PLI and other demands. Insurance Mis-selling Crackdown: IRDAI chief Ajay Seth said reforms aim to improve affordability and access while tackling compulsory bundling and mis-selling, with cost savings expected to flow to policyholders. Maritime Blue Finance: IFC will lend $70m to JN Port for shore power infrastructure, cutting emissions and air pollution while creating jobs. US-China-Taiwan Tensions: US officials defended a stalled Taiwan arms sale amid renewed scrutiny of China’s Iran support claims, while markets tracked US-Iran negotiation hopes.

AI Infrastructure Race: South Korea’s Rebellions opens a Singapore arm with initial capital of S$1m to push Southeast Asia AI chip and data-centre demand, stepping up competition with rivals like FuriosaAI. Cross-Border Finance: Qatar Financial Centre and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sign an MoU to deepen investment links, spotlighting wealth/asset management, fintech and digital assets. AI Chip Push: Alibaba unveils the Zhenwu V900 accelerator, targeting ~3x performance vs its prior chip and aiming for mass production from Q1 next year, as it navigates U.S. export limits. Data-Centre Caution: Investors are growing skeptical of data-centre IPO valuations and risks, with SB Energy’s planned listing delayed amid weak buyer appetite. China Property Sentiment: JLL says global property investors see signs of recovery in mainland China but remain wary of oversupply and demand absorption. India Green Shipping Push: India lays groundwork for a ₹2,300 cr port-based e-methanol plant at Kandla to supply cleaner fuel for international vessels. Banking Disruption Watch: India’s public sector banks open Sunday ahead of a Sept 28–30 strike, while ATM charges are waived during the walkout period. Tourism Tech Shift: India’s tourism growth is increasingly driven by AI and digital platforms, with record visits and rising sector jobs. Bioenergy Investment Pipeline: India’s Renewable Energy India Expo 2026 targets ₹2,800 cr in new bioenergy investment, led by biogas momentum under the GOBARdhan scheme.

US–China Trade Reset: The White House says the US and China agreed on “more favorable” tariff treatment for $30bn of non-sensitive goods in each direction, alongside a working group on agricultural market access and a pledge for China to buy at least 10m metric tons of US coal annually in 2027-28. UN Diplomacy & Terror Financing: India’s Jaishankar told the UNGA it will defend itself against terrorism, calling Pakistan a “serial practitioner” trying to normalise terror, and urged accountability including countering terror financing. Gulf Shipping Pressure: Jaishankar also said attacks on commercial shipping and seafarers are “simply unacceptable,” warning the “weaponisation of everything” is hitting the Global South’s food, fuel and finance. India–GCC Trade Momentum: GCC’s UNGA-side talks with India stressed execution of the 2024 Joint Action Plan and the start of GCC-India FTA negotiations, with focus on energy, tech, digital and private-sector investment. Green Shipping Push: India plans port-based e-methanol production at Kandla, aiming to supply green fuel for global shipping. Climate Stress in India: Maharashtra declared drought across 74% of the state after monsoon shortfalls, raising risks for farmers and rural incomes. EV Charging Race: China’s ultra-fast chargers can add 70% range in about five minutes, highlighting a widening gap with the US. Trade Finance in Bangladesh: Dhaka Bank won an ADB award for third straight year under the Trade and Supply Chain Finance Programme, backing SME access to cross-border trade. Logistics Costs: DHL Express raised India shipment charges by 8.9% from Jan 1, citing inflation, currency moves and cost pressures.

India–GCC Talks: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar co-chaired the India–GCC Troika in New York, reviewing progress on the 2024–28 Joint Action Plan and welcoming the launch of India–GCC FTA negotiations, with cooperation spanning trade, investment, energy, health, tech and people-to-people links. Pandemic Preparedness: India urged sustained investment and stronger health systems at a UN high-level meeting on pandemic prevention, calling for digital public infrastructure as a global public good. Housing & Development Finance: IIFL Home Finance signed a $150m JICA loan (with ADB and private co-financing) to expand affordable housing finance for low-income women in India. Real Estate & Markets: Hyderabad inaugurated IREC 2026, with the India Housing Report (H1 2026) highlighting ₹3.63tn primary housing sales in Tier-1 cities. Semiconductors Roadmap: 360 ONE Capital said India’s semiconductor value creation will build over 3–5 years via commissioning, qualification and yield stabilisation. Banking Disruption: India’s planned 3-day nationwide bank strike from Sept 28 has prompted customers to complete key transactions early; PSU banks will open on Sept 27. Rupee Outlook: Bank of Baroda flagged a near-term rupee range of Rs 94.5–96 per dollar as inflows largely add to reserves. Gold Forecast: ICICI Bank expects gold to consolidate in 2026 and rise toward $4,600–5,000/oz in H1 2027. Energy Supply Move: India ordered captive coal plants to run at maximum capacity from Oct 1 to year-end to meet rising demand.

China Steel Watch: China’s steel slowdown is nudging iron ore and dry bulk demand into focus, with CISA urging mills to restrain output as construction and real estate investment cool. Pakistan Connectivity: Pakistan plans to strengthen land and maritime corridors as a connectivity and investment hub, with ministers highlighting Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar capacity. US-China AI Politics: Trump says Xi “seemed to like” renaming AI as “super intelligence,” as US-China talks keep AI and regulation at the center. India Banking Disruption: India’s Sept 28-30 bank strike is prompting advisories to complete key transactions early; RBI has allowed Sunday operations to limit fallout for customers, including NRIs in the UAE. Central Asia Green Energy: Azerbaijan says the Central Asia–Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor feasibility study will finish by May 2027, targeting commissioning in 2032, while officials push for a single investment market across the region. Crypto Tax Update (India): India’s Income-tax Act 2025 now governs crypto reporting, including 30% tax and 1% TDS rules for virtual digital assets. Malaysia-China Trade: Malaysia’s PM Anwar says a China trip delivered momentum on investment and trade, including WorldSkills and the Global Digital Trade Expo.

Malaysia–China Investment Push: PM Anwar Ibrahim’s Shanghai/Hangzhou visit flagged potential RM28.6bn in deals with 26 Chinese firms across semiconductors, AI, robotics, EVs, batteries and biotech. India Manufacturing Milestone: Modi marked 12 years of “Make in India,” citing big gains in electronics output and defence production. India Capital Markets Reform: SEBI widened access for foreign investors in physically settled non-farm commodity contracts and eased portfolio manager norms for overseas investing. NSE IPO Reality Check: India’s National Stock Exchange finally listed, but the debut showed muted investor enthusiasm. India FDI Surge: FY25-26 FDI hit a record $94.53bn, with PLI schemes credited for jobs and output. SE Asia Talent Costs: Aon expects 2027 salary growth averaging 5.2% across the region, with Singapore lowest at 4.1%. China–US Diplomacy Theatre: Trump and Xi traded gifts and extended a trade truce, with AI cooperation mentioned but substance still questioned. EU/UK Auto Tariffs: EU reportedly urged the UK to raise tariffs on Chinese cars or align with EU trade rules to avoid “Made in Europe” barriers. Kyrgyz Guarantee Fund: World Bank and ADB discussed scaling business guarantees, including green and digital mechanisms.

US–China AI & trade diplomacy: At the White House, Trump and Xi traded upbeat lines on “friendship” and “balanced trade,” while both pushed AI governance—Xi said AI must stay under “human control,” and Trump flagged security, technology and “superintelligence” as summit priorities. AI infrastructure finance: World Bank chief Ajay Banga warned that big AI data centres’ power, computing, data and skills needs are “not coming” for most emerging markets, as electricity demand for data centres is set to surge. SoftBank AI funding: SoftBank plans about ¥1.76tn in foreign-currency bond sales to help fund a further $10bn investment push tied to OpenAI. India grid build-out: India added 113,013 MVA of AC transformation capacity in FY26, hitting 90% of the CEA target—yet analysts note the next decade will require faster scaling. Banking markets: Fitch assigned final BBB- to Bank of Maharashtra’s $500m senior unsecured notes; Bank of Baroda monetized part of its NSE stake via an IPO OFS raising ₹1,372.35 crore. Malaysia–China digital trade: PM Anwar said Malaysia is positioning as an ASEAN–China digital trade bridge, launching a Malaysia pavilion at the Global Digital Trade Expo. Corporate expansion (India): Pine Labs and Google Cloud teamed up for agentic commerce; Waaree Clean Energy moves into specialty gases for semiconductors and solar; Minda approved a ₹500 crore NCD issue and a China expansion unit. Pacific policy: UN debate spotlights a deep-sea mining divide, with American Samoa opposing commercial extraction.

India Insurance Overhaul: IRDAI’s consultation proposes reintroducing commission caps and banning compulsory loan-linked bundling, threatening bancassurance and agent-led growth as distributors face a commission squeeze. Banking Labour Disruption: India’s UFBU calls a three-day nationwide bank strike (Sept 28-30), with public sector banks told to stay open Sept 27—customers are urged to plan cash and branch work early. Digital Payments Milestone: BCG says India’s UPI now runs 20B+ transactions monthly, positioning it as a global benchmark for real-time payments and a base for “agent” services. Capital Markets Watch: NSE’s muted debut (near-flat premium) puts India’s biggest exchange at the lower end of recent IPO performance, despite strong demand. Trade & Diplomacy: The US and China extend their tariff truce to Jan 10 as Xi Jinping arrives in Washington, keeping bigger trade talks alive. Asia Macro & Tech Supply Chains: Moody’s Analytics expects several APAC economies—incl. Malaysia and India—to outgrow China in 2026, tied to deeper AI/semiconductor supply-chain integration. Malaysia-China Business Push: Malaysia’s PM Anwar meets China’s Li Qiang to review bilateral projects and explore new cooperation under their strategic partnership framework. Digital Bonds in Asia: Hana Bank issues Korea’s first digital bond via Euroclear’s D-FMI, listed on SGX—another step for faster, digitised debt settlement. Used-Car Platform Deal: Landmark Cars and OLX India launch a phygital used-car marketplace combining online discovery with physical inspection, test drives, financing and servicing.