AGP Executive Report

US-China Influence Probe: The Telegraph says US lawmakers are looking into alleged Chinese funding of pro-Palestine marches in the UK, including payments linked to Code Pink and tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham, as Washington weighs foreign interference risks. Middle East Trade & Sanctions: Iran’s push for “financial jihad” with bounties on US soldiers comes as the US signals tougher economic pressure on Iran, including secondary moves targeting China-linked “teapot” refineries. India Markets & FX: India’s week ended with a softer Sensex/Nifty as crude and geopolitics weighed the rupee; investors stayed engaged via continued FII buying and DIIs support. Banking Liquidity (Bangladesh): Bangladesh banks logged record excess liquidity above Tk 4 lakh crore as deposit growth outpaced weak private credit demand, reflecting cautious business sentiment. AI & Semiconductors (Asia): China earnings point to AI becoming “core infrastructure,” while Malaysia’s Penang draft plan targets a shift toward chip design and higher-value semiconductor work by 2040. Cross-border Investment (Jordan-Africa): Jordan sees King Abdullah’s China visit as a chance to narrow a widening trade deficit and attract more diversified Chinese investment. Policy & Growth (India): PM Modi announced a nationwide sports talent hunt for ages 5-15 tied to 2036 Olympics ambitions, alongside broader infrastructure and digital transformation themes. Venture & Consumer Finance (India): Scrubsy raised nearly $3m seed funding to expand home-cleaning categories, highlighting continued startup appetite in consumer services.

US–China AI Pressure: Washington is preparing to tell dozens of countries to “pick sides” in the AI race, warning they could be excluded from a US-led coalition if they join Beijing’s competing AI framework. India Market & Flows: Indian equities stayed range-bound as crude and geopolitics weighed; domestic institutions kept buying while foreign flows turned more optimistic. India Payments for Remittances: Qatar Post launched PosTransfer, using UPI to let Indians in Qatar send money straight to UPI-enabled bank accounts. India Space & Startups: India’s space ecosystem is expanding fast, with ~440 space tech startups registered and IN-SPACe authorisations granted to 52 non-government entities, including 18 startups. DIPAM Staffing Crunch: India’s parliamentary finance panel flagged 43% vacancy at DIPAM and urged a task force to fill 38 vacant posts to protect disinvestment and asset-management execution. AI Capex Outlook: Goldman Sachs projects global AI investment around $1tn in 2026, rising toward 1.4% of GDP by 2028. China Data Timing: China moved July economic data release to 3 p.m. Beijing time, a change that could jolt currency, bond and crypto trading. China–Africa Currency Push: Libya’s banks are set to join China’s CIPS, while more African lenders deepen yuan settlement links. Corporate IPO Watch: Horizon Industrial Parks raised ₹1,167.75 crore from anchor investors ahead of its IPO opening Aug 17. Cambodia Investment Surge: Cambodia approved $5.22bn in fixed-asset projects in Jan–Jul 2026, targeting 177,000 jobs, with EV and renewable energy among priorities.

Remittances Upgrade (Qatar–India): Qatar Post launched a near real-time money transfer service to India with India Post and the Universal Postal Union, using UPI via “PosTransfer,” letting customers remit QR10–QR4,000 for a nominal fee with funds credited almost instantly to UPI-linked Indian accounts. Trade & FX Pressure (India): India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a six-month high of $31.98bn in July as Middle East conflict lifted oil and freight costs; imports rose to $76.22bn while exports hit a record $44.24bn. Green Finance (Malaysia): STT GDC secured up to $1.37bn in green financing for its STT Johor data centre campus in Iskandar Puteri, with banks including UOB Malaysia and OCBC, targeting up to 166MW IT load. Insolvency Watch (India): India’s NCLT admitted Bank of Maharashtra’s plea to start insolvency against Tirumalla India Storehouse under the IBC over a Rs 17.98 crore default. Forex Demand Shift (India): Thomas Cook India data shows Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities now drive 53% of India’s forex demand, led by leisure travel (57%). Policy/Capacity (Fiji): Pacific Polytech says Fiji’s government funding cut from about $7m to $500,000 threatens campus operations and could force staff leave without pay. Banking & Inclusion (Asia social finance): AVPN CEO Naina Subberwal Batra urged more Asia-led social financing as a $26tn philanthropic gap grows amid shrinking overseas aid.

US-China Trade Crackdown: The White House flagged India’s Pune–Gujarat–Chennai belt in its “Great Transshipment Scam,” warning of China-linked tariff evasion via third countries—though Indian trade experts say the risk label could misread legitimate manufacturing. RBI & Banking Tech: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra urged banks to use AI for lending with “alternative data” (cash flows, GST, utility payments), while keeping accountability with humans and requiring safety controls. India Growth & Funding: SBI Research said India remains on track to be among the fastest-growing economies, citing strong credit/deposit growth and FCNR(B) inflows; CareEdge also said RBI’s early FCNR(B) window closure is unlikely to hurt liquidity. Independence Day Policy Push: PM Modi announced free online coaching for competitive exams and AI skill training for 1 crore youth, alongside big targets like 50 Fortune Global 500 firms and a global defence-supplier push. Trade & Industry Signals: India’s textile/apparel exports slipped 1.84% in Apr–Jul, while Bahrain imported BD111m from India in the first five months, led by alumina, aluminium and steel. Governance Watch: CAG flagged financial irregularities and unauthorised rule changes at IIM Rohtak.

India Forex Boost: RBI says India’s forex reserves jumped by $14.14bn to $707bn in the week to Aug 7, driven by higher foreign currency assets and gold. RBI Liquidity Push: A report expects RBI concessional swap windows for FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB to pull $90–95bn in FY27, lifting the capital account surplus and improving the balance of payments. SEBI Investor Access: SEBI proposes digital onboarding for individual foreign investors and a wider accredited-investor route based on securities holdings (Rs 5 crore for individuals), aiming to expand participation in AIFs. Bank Funding: Bank of Baroda raised $700m via overseas bonds, nearly 3.8x oversubscribed, with tight spreads. Malaysia Growth View: Investment banks keep Malaysia’s 2026 GDP growth forecast in the 4.8–5.4% range, citing resilient domestic demand and E&E exports. China Tech & Markets: Wingtech posts H1 loss as Nexperia supply disruptions hit; Z.ai readies GLM-5.3 to challenge OpenAI/Anthropic in coding. Trade & Tariffs: Trump’s 100% drone tariff plan targets China-linked supply chains; Nigeria warns it must upgrade production to capture China’s new zero-tariff $18bn window. Defence Industrial Move: Reliance and Rolls-Royce plan indigenous fighter-jet engine development for India’s AMCA. AI Commerce Deal: Temasek-backed LemmaTree leads Graas’s $17m Series B and Trustana acquisition to power retail AI with product data.

Banking & Markets: Bank of America agreed to buy up to 49.9% of Jio Credit Limited via Jio Financial Services’ NBFC arm, a deal aimed at scaling digital lending in India. Regulation: India’s SEBI proposed widening the accredited investor pool by adding a ₹5 crore securities-asset test for individuals (₹20 crore for corporates), while the RBI fined Bhind Jilla Sahakari Kendriya Bank and Valuefin India Credit Services for compliance lapses. Capital Markets & Liquidity: China’s PBOC plans a six-month reverse repo rollover to keep liquidity ample, while Asia braces for higher US Treasury yields that can tighten financial conditions. Tech & AI Finance: OpenAI and Anthropic cut AI model prices as Chinese rivals gain share; SMIC’s Q2 profit jumped on AI chip demand. Investing & IPOs: KKR-backed LEAP India debuted at a modest premium after a subdued listing. Regional Finance Hub: Hong Kong pushed ahead with offshore yuan bond futures to deepen its role in China renminbi markets. Manufacturing & Clean Industry: India’s ITA backed 11 clean industrial projects with $18bn potential investment, and Tamil Nadu secured major fresh manufacturing commitments.

Blockchain in Bonds: MUFG will test real-time blockchain settlement for Japanese government bond trades on the Canton network, aiming to cut JGB repo settlement from 1–3 days to near-instant, and improve repo capital efficiency. Crypto Wealth Push: B2C2 hired a Schroders veteran to expand in Asia’s crypto wealth market, as traditional wealth managers increasingly seek regulated digital-asset exposure. India Inflation Watch: India’s retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July, driven mainly by food prices, keeping the RBI likely on hold near term. SEBI Investor Access: SEBI proposed widening “accredited investor” eligibility, including a Rs 5 crore securities-asset threshold for individuals, to boost participation in alternative investment funds. UPI Funding Surge: India’s payments ecosystem drew about $5.8bn in funding since 2021, with UPI’s merchant-friendly model helping scale consumer and business payment platforms. Rare Earth Supply Chain: India received 20 bids for a rare earth magnet manufacturing scheme to build 6,000 MTPA of NdFeB capacity, targeting reduced import dependence. BRICS Finance Angle: Iran’s central bank governor said Iran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on interlinking payment systems and digital currencies. Trade & Logistics: DHL invested $204m to expand its Shenzhen Express gateway, tripling capacity to ~900 tons/day and adding new cargo flights.

BRICS Finance & Payments: Iran’s central bank chief said Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, with BRICS finance ministers also discussing payment links and digital currencies to speed cross-border transfers. Korea Trade via E-commerce: JD.com opened a direct purchasing office in Seoul to source Korean consumer goods for China, as Korea’s consumer exports show a mid-year rebound. China Markets & Liquidity: China stocks climbed on AI-linked optics and memory names after upbeat US AI hardware forecasts; meanwhile the PBOC kept seven-day reverse repo volume at zero for a third day while planning overnight reverse repos. Singapore Fintech: Trust Bank launched “Freedom,” Singapore’s first stockback credit card that auto-invests rewards into selected US stocks/ETFs. India VC Funding: Mirae Asset Venture Investments India closed MAVOF II’s first tranche at Rs 1,125 crore for AI, deeptech and advanced manufacturing startups. Japan Macro: Japan wholesale prices rose 7.2% in July, reinforcing odds of a BOJ rate hike in September. Energy/Industry Deals: Coal India and AMNS signed a pact to explore synthesis gas use from a proposed coal gasification plant with CCUS near Odisha facilities. Banking AI Ops: Suryoday Bank partnered with Kyndryl to deploy agentic AI across onboarding, lending workflows, compliance and suspicious-transaction checks.

Japan FX Rescue Watch: The US and Japan’s yen support looked big on paper, but the yen slid back toward 160 per dollar within days, underscoring that rate gaps and Japan’s fiscal worries are still doing the damage. China Tech Earnings: Tencent’s Q2 profit fell slightly as it pours money into AI, even as revenue rose—investors are watching whether the AI push can translate into monetisation. China Policy & Industry: China’s NEV momentum stayed strong in July with a big wholesale jump, helped by tax cuts and trade-in support, while auto recalls surged in July, led by airbags and seatbelts. China Economic Legacy: Former premier Zhu Rongji died at 97, with leaders across the region recalling his role in opening China’s economy and reshaping its financial system. India Inflation: India’s retail inflation rose to 4.45% in July for the ninth straight month, driven by food prices, keeping RBI rate expectations in focus. India Growth & Investment Pipeline: Andhra Pradesh’s SIPB approved 25 projects worth Rs 2.08 lakh crore, aiming to spur jobs and push sectors like green ammonia, lithium batteries and robotics. Regional Trade Talks: India and SACU signed ToR to start preferential trade agreement talks, reviving a long-stalled push that could reshape tariffs on key Indian exports. Cyber & Defence Finance: Japan’s FSA is probing how major banks and insurers can fund the defence sector, while a UK MoD case raises uncomfortable questions about what’s inside defence tech. BRICS Banking: Iran said it is set to join the New Development Bank, aiming to expand national-currency trade and banking cooperation.

BRICS Finance Talks: India’s FM Nirmala Sitharaman and RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra meet in Jaipur for BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors, focusing on growth, financial liberalisation and risk management. Japan Rates & Markets: Japan’s Nikkei hovered near 67,000 as investors weigh oil and yen risks; JGB yields rose on faster BOJ rate-hike bets, with fund managers turning to longer-dated bonds. China IPO Watch: Londian Wason priced its NYSE IPO to raise about $94m, testing appetite for Chinese listings amid US-China tensions. China Property Pressure: Beijing is pushing new home-viewing demand after easing rules around purchases and provident-fund borrowing limits. India Digital Payments: India debates whether UPI could face charges, but officials say consumers won’t be charged and no final MDR framework is set. India Banking “Forgotten Money”: Unclaimed bank deposits near ₹1 lakh crore have been moved to RBI’s DEA fund, with claim routes still open. India Energy & Climate: PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli reaches 5m households; India’s ethanol supplies top 800 crore litres, with grain share rising. ASEAN Cyber Costs: An IBM study flags record data-breach costs across Southeast Asia, driven by faster, cheaper attacks aided by AI. China Rare Earth Push: Bayan Obo rare earth mine expands processing capacity with a $74m investment to secure critical-mineral supply.

Sovereign Credit Watch: Fitch affirmed India’s BBB- rating at BBB- while flagging youth unemployment risks and possible fiscal pressure, even as it expects 6.4% growth in FY27. Energy Transition Funding: Malaysia’s MIDA chief Tengku Zafrul said ASEAN faces a ~$200bn-a-year capital coordination gap for energy transition, calling for faster bankability and regional financing. Gas Power Delivery Gap: Wood Mackenzie warned Southeast Asia’s gas-fired pipeline is constrained—only 14.9GW of 53GW planned by 2030 is likely to reach commercial operation, mainly due to LNG, turbines and financing bottlenecks. India Clean Fuel Push: India targets a 10-fold jump in compressed biogas to 5 mmscmd in 5-10 years, citing feedstock, pricing, offtake and by-product uncertainties. Banking Deals: Global IME Bank offered NAIMA Auto Expo vehicle loans from 5.25% (EVs 5.99% fixed for three years). China AI/Regulation: AI agent Manus will resume independent operations after Beijing blocked Meta’s ~$2bn acquisition, with some user data to be deleted in affected jurisdictions. China Gold Demand: China’s gold consumption rose 1.23% in H1 as investment demand surged while jewelry fell. Rare Earth Supply: China is expanding Bayan Obo rare earth processing capacity by 50% with a $74m investment. Tech/Markets: TSMC and Sony announced a $4.69bn Japan image-sensor JV, with volume production expected in 2029. Weather Disruption: Typhoon Dolphin flooded parts of central China and Beijing outskirts, disrupting flights and construction. Investor Legal Alerts: Rosen Law filed new securities class actions involving Blaize, Datavault AI and Alibaba, with lead-plaintiff deadlines in early October.

Malaysia Finance Watch: Malaysia’s Tabung Haji rescue bailout topped RM10bn, with officials stressing it was to restore solvency and not to seize assets. Renewables & Industry: Malaysia approved 42 Feed-in Tariff projects for 2026, expected to pull in about RM4.3bn in investment and boost local supply chains. ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN missions in Bangladesh pledged deeper ties as the bloc marks its 59th anniversary, aiming to expand trade, investment and people-to-people links. Gold & Rates: Gold pushed above $4,400 as weaker US jobs data cooled expectations for Fed tightening, while central-bank buying kept the bid firm. China FX & Markets: The yuan hovered near a 3-1/2-year peak ahead of US inflation data, with policymakers seen keeping moves measured. Japan Security: Japan’s defense budget request is set to hit a record 8.9tn yen, raising questions over a shift toward more offensive capabilities. India Banking & Payments: RBI urged India to “shape the AI journey” for finance, while Karnataka set up a helpdesk for people facing frozen bank accounts in cyber-fraud probes. Cross-border Payments: Standard Bank Namibia launched direct access to China’s CIPS for RMB clearing, cutting reliance on correspondent routes. Corporate Finance: JPMorgan plans to expand Asia-Pacific corporate banking hiring through 2027, citing AI and cross-border trade growth. Energy Deals: ONGC and Shell Energy India signed an MoU to explore deepwater blocks and LNG sourcing.

Philippines–China Tensions: Six major business groups in Metro Manila urged authorities to investigate caskets with anti-China messages, warning the acts could harm ties and the country’s image as a “safe, stable, and welcoming destination” for investment and tourism. ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN marked its 59th anniversary with a push for stronger regional unity and deeper engagement with partners like Kenya, highlighting trade, education and people-to-people links. China Tech to Real World: Chinese researchers reported quantum-powered advances in weather forecasting and drug discovery, signaling early movement from lab breakthroughs toward practical applications. Energy & Markets: A Hormuz energy-shock analysis says the US and China responded differently—US leaned on oil output and stock drawdowns, while China shifted toward cleantech exports and reduced oil imports. Banking & Credit: India’s HDFC Bank cut MCLR by 5 bps across key tenures, citing cheaper funding and deposit repricing, while a Finance Ministry PSB conclave set Aug 17–18 for deposit mobilisation and financing the investment cycle. Cross-border Finance: Kazakhstan and China agreed a currency swap and a CBDC settlement pilot, aiming to ease cross-border payments and reduce reliance on third currencies. Cybersecurity: A UK defense sweep flagged Royal Navy drones sending sensitive telemetry to servers in mainland China, alongside broader edge-device security weaknesses.

ASEAN Centrality: Malaysia’s foreign minister said ASEAN’s “autonomous compass” must guide the region amid fragmentation, rivalries and frayed multilateralism as leaders mark ASEAN Day. FX & Rates: Malaysia’s ringgit is expected to stabilise by end-August as the Fed holds rates, while the Bank of Japan faces pressure to potentially quicken hikes amid upside inflation risks. Markets & Flows: Bursa Malaysia saw RM451.1m net inflows last week as local institutions bought more, while foreign flows turned mixed; in Japan, the Nikkei climbed on chip strength as Middle East uncertainty capped gains. China Macro & Commodities: China’s July inflation cooled and the yuan held near multi-year highs on strong exports; iron ore stayed rangebound as Australia’s strike risk met softer China data. Wealth & Banking: UOB struck a distribution partnership with Allianz Global Investors to expand advisory-led wealth offerings across ASEAN, and India’s RBI deposit rules from Oct 1 focus on uniformity and transparency for fixed deposits. Crypto & Compliance: World Liberty Financial’s $100m token deal is linked to a UK money-laundering probe involving a Chinese entrepreneur. Energy & Industry: HiTHIUM rolled out a long-duration energy storage park in China, while China’s rare earth producers reported strong first-half profits despite geopolitical noise. Trade Links: Bangladesh and New Zealand agreed new steps to expand trade and investment in agri-tech, dairy, green energy and more.

China-Africa Trade Push: Central China’s Hunan targets $11.9bn (80bn yuan) in trade with Africa by 2028, banking on mining, autos, medical devices and modern agriculture, with “Two Countries, Twin Parks” pilot projects. Semiconductors & AI Hardware: Moore Threads, dubbed China’s “Nvidia alternative,” surged 147% in H1 revenue to 1.736bn yuan as AI GPU demand lifts sales and losses narrow. Trade Tensions in Europe-Asia: Germany’s exports to China fell over 12% in H1 while imports rose 8.9%, widening the deficit to ~€55bn as Chinese firms deepen local value chains. Macro Watch: China’s inflation cooled—CPI at 0.5% y/y and PPI at 3.5%—signaling persistent deflationary pressure from weak consumption. Japan FX Policy: Japan and the US said they’re ready to intervene again in FX markets to support a stronger yen. India Finance & Banking: IIFL Finance launches a women-focused gold loan scheme with low starting rates and zero processing fees; Kotak Bank rolls out a hybrid home loan letting borrowers lock rates up to 65 months. Retail & Payments: India’s GeM turns 10, now connecting 1.37 lakh buyers with 25 lakh sellers and enabling over ₹20 lakh crore in procurement. Energy/Infrastructure: Russia floated a direct rail link to the Indian Ocean via corridors through Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan amid shipping risks. Regional Business Climate: Philippines business groups back DFA after intimidation tactics in Metro Manila, warning it could hit investment, trade and tourism.

Trade & Industry: Germany’s trade deficit with China widened in H1 2026 as Chinese firms cut reliance on European imports, while German exports to China fell more than 12% y/y—another sign of pressure on Europe’s manufacturing base. APEC & China’s Growth Model: Shenzhen is positioning itself as a showcase for China’s next industries ahead of APEC in November, with drones, humanoid robots, EVs and AI-linked manufacturing driving trade growth. Inflation Watch (China): China’s factory-gate inflation eased to 3.5% in July and consumer inflation cooled to 0.5%, reinforcing worries about weak domestic demand even as energy effects fade. India Policy & Markets: India is pushing eVTOL electric air taxis with a goal to fly by 2028 (testing to ramp next year), while foreign portfolio investors kept buying—Rs 12,920 crore in equities through Aug 7—supported by GDP and earnings optimism. Banking & Credit (India): HUDCO expects its loan book to cross Rs 2 lakh crore in FY27 and plans Rs 75,000 crore of borrowing to fund growth. Geopolitics & Risk: A US Senate bill raises the spectre of up to 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas, putting India and China in the spotlight. Japan Security: Japan is planning record defence spending of about $56B for FY2027 as it shifts toward drones and AI-enabled command systems. Corporate/Regulatory (Myanmar): Myanmar’s central bank revoked Asia Yangon Bank’s licence, with depositors able to withdraw at branches during office hours. Regional Investment (India): Odisha’s Delhi outreach pulled in Rs 66,392 crore in proposals and aims to convert them into jobs and manufacturing capacity.