AGP Executive Report

Markets & Tech: A global chip sell-off hit Asia and spilled into US trading, with South Korea’s KOSPI down nearly 10% and Japan’s Nikkei slipping as investors rotate away from AI and semiconductor leaders. India Capital Markets: India’s 10-year bond yield edged to a three-month low as oil prices cooled and investors looked ahead to possible bond index inclusion; separately, India plans to sell up to a 2% stake in Indian Railway Finance Corp via an OFS. Trade & Policy: India launched an anti-dumping probe on electrical steel imports from China, Japan, Korea and Russia, while India also pushed for faster investor dispute resolution to attract FDI. Energy & Geopolitics: Iran is rushing to sell oil to Asia, including India, after a Trump-era sanctions waiver; meanwhile, 11 India-bound ships transited the Strait of Hormuz under the US-Iran MoU. Corporate/Finance: Tencent is reportedly negotiating exits from some Japanese studio investments; China Resources New Energy’s Shenzhen IPO drew massive retail demand. Regional Business: Bangladesh’s PM visit to China is framed around boosting investor confidence and climate-linked investment. Compliance & Security: India said it is proactively monitoring Telegram over alleged illegal content, as it lifts a ban tied to exam leak claims. Banking/Enterprise Software: Wolters Kluwer appointed Kumiko Minowa to lead CCH Tagetik’s Asia Pacific and Japan growth from Singapore.

Japan-USD FX Watch: Japan’s finance minister said the government will take “decisive” action on currency if needed, after talks with the US on intervening only to fight volatility and disorderly moves. China Fiscal Austerity: China narrowed its fiscal deficit for the first time in over two years, cutting spending as land-sale revenue falls and growth support weakens. China Financial Law: Lawmakers began first reading of a draft financial law aimed at tighter regulation, risk prevention and “high-quality” development. China-India Security Reset: Chinese FM Wang Yi told Ajit Doval relations are back on a recovery track, with both sides agreeing they are partners, not rivals. India Macro Pressure: India’s core sector growth slowed to a seven-month low in May as petroleum and coal output weakened amid West Asia-linked disruptions. India Markets & Energy Risk: RBI said India has buffers despite global fragility from the US-Iran truce, while analysts warn West Asia conflict could squeeze corporate margins in FY27’s first half. Banking Probe: CBI arrested former CEOs of Reliance Commercial Finance and Reliance Home Finance in a Rs 7,623 crore bank fraud case. Data Centres Funding: Galaxy Data Center raised US$250m to build AI-era data centre campuses across Southeast Asia. Crypto/Markets: TurboFlow raised $6m seed funding for an Asia on-chain prediction market hub. Japan Capital Markets: Insurers turned net sellers of superlong JGBs as yields climbed and volatility rose.

China FDI Push: China’s commerce ministry, NDRC and finance ministry rolled out a 15-measure action plan to stabilise foreign investment, widening market access in services (including finance and healthcare), easing procedures for cross-border M&A and data flows, and strengthening “Invest China” support. China-US Tech & Defence Retaliation: China announced export curbs on dual-use items to 10 US military-related firms and barred government procurement from 46 designated US companies, escalating the tech/sanctions standoff. India Banking Probe: India’s CBI arrested former CEOs of Reliance Commercial Finance and Reliance Home Finance in a Rs 7,623 crore fraud case tied to alleged misuse of public sector bank funds. RBI FX Support: RBI data showed it sold a net $8.94bn in April to support the rupee amid US-Iran tensions, while gold holdings stayed unchanged. Offshore Wind Infrastructure (Philippines): GWEC flagged port upgrades—especially Agila Subic and Port of Bulalacao—as the key investment lever to unlock the Philippines’ offshore wind pipeline. Indonesia-Japan AI Skills: Indonesia and Japan expanded AI talent cooperation via a JICA-backed “AI Talent Factory” project focused on digital skills, online child protection and disinformation resilience. Markets & Oil: Asia stocks were mixed; oil eased on optimism around US-Iran talks, with negotiations progressing via a 60-day roadmap. Mongolia-India Ties: Mongolia and India agreed to expand strategic cooperation, including trade and investment and projects in agriculture and livestock. Hong Kong-Fujian Finance Links: Hong Kong signed six deals with Fujian to deepen cooperation in finance, trade, tourism and education, with a push for more mainland listings in the city. CRED-Meta Deal: India’s CRED said it will raise Rs 8,550 crore led by Meta, with founder Kunal Shah stepping down to lead WhatsApp globally.

Pacific diplomacy & climate finance: U.S. officials called last week’s White House summit with a dozen Pacific Islands leaders “collaborative,” with Biden pledging new infrastructure (including subsea cables) and extra US$200m for climate-change projects, while Washington stressed it’s “listening” rather than forcing a U.S.-China choice. El Niño preparedness: SPREP urged Pacific communities to start preparing now that El Niño has been declared underway, warning impacts will vary by country and urging early, practical steps. China–US trade escalation: China imposed export controls on 10 US defence/rare-earth firms and barred government procurement from 46 more US companies, as tensions over blacklists and military-linked listings keep rising. FX & market signals: The yuan weakened to 6.8150 per USD; Hong Kong’s wealth hub status is under pressure amid tighter cross-border investment rules, while JPMorgan reportedly blocked Claude AI use for Hong Kong staff. India development finance: ADB said India is its biggest private-sector market, targeting about US$1bn in direct financing in 2026 aligned to India’s priorities. AI power-grid shift (China): China’s AI boom is reshaping power-grid needs, with the key challenge shifting from total electricity to delivering stable instantaneous power where and when AI workloads demand it. Banking & credit watch (India): MOFSL expects private banks to outperform PSUs as credit growth nears a decadal high, with earnings growth modeled higher for private lenders. Corporate/credit risk (India): CBI registered a Rs 62.42 crore bank fraud case tied to alleged inflated debtor figures used to obtain higher cash credit facilities. Sustainable finance (Asia): UOB said sustainable finance is moving from lofty targets to practical decarbonisation and adaptation spending across the real economy. Telecom in the Pacific: Digicel Pacific appointed Hannah Chong to its board, aiming to strengthen network strategy and investment across Asia-Pacific. Energy & geopolitics (markets): Oil and the US dollar swung on US-Iran peace-talk developments, with markets watching Strait of Hormuz reopening prospects.

Brexit Aftermath, London’s Finance Pivot: JPMorgan plans a Canary Wharf tower for up to 12,000 staff, while Reuters notes City employment is near highs and profits are strong—but Brexit still eroded London’s dominance as jobs shifted to hubs like Paris and Dublin. APEC Growth Agenda: APEC officials at the China CEO Forum urged openness, faster connectivity, digital trade and supply-chain resilience to keep Asia-Pacific growth on track amid protectionism. EU Trade De-risking Tool: Brussels is moving from warnings to a new diversification instrument aimed at cutting China-linked supply-chain dependence and unsustainable trade imbalances. China-Africa Energy Security: Policymakers frame energy cooperation as a geopolitical buffer against Middle East volatility and wider supply disruptions. India External Accounts Beat Expectations: RBI data shows India swung to a $7.1bn current account surplus in Q4 FY26, helped by services exports and remittances despite trade and market pressures. India Space Economy Boost: India targets a five-fold jump in its space sector to $40–45bn over the next decade, driven by private participation and commercialization reforms. Malaysia MSME Speed-Up: TEKUN Nasional targets approving loans under RM20,000 within 24 hours via a new one-stop digital portal. Sarawak Incentives Push: Sarawak urges federal incentives to attract hydrogen and semiconductor investment as it builds a green-economy edge. Japan Defense Exports: Japan’s Mogami-class frigate deal with Australia (11 upgraded ships) signals a major postwar shift toward defense sales across the Indo-Pacific. Japan Crypto Allocation: A Japanese pension fund plans a 1% allocation to crypto, marking another step toward mainstream institutional adoption. Commodities Watch: Aluminium supply shocks are being blunted by Middle East, China and Indonesia smelter logistics, though analysts still flag tight near-term conditions. India Monsoon Risk: El Niño-linked uncertainty is raising alarm for India’s 2026 monsoon and household budgets, with forecasts pointing to below-normal rainfall.

India-US Trade: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the India-UK FTA is set for July 15, but the India-US trade deal can’t be implemented until India secures a tariff “competitive advantage” over rivals. Banking & Markets: RBI listed bank closures for June 22-28, while a separate piece compares bank FDs vs post office time deposits, highlighting sovereign-backed safety for the latter. Wealth & Investing: A Redseer report says India’s average digital investor holds about ₹10 lakh and adds ~₹3 lakh a year, with mutual funds and equities dominating. Digital Governance: India and South Korea discussed cooperation on digital governance, e-government, AI in public administration, and citizen-centric service delivery. Cross-border Wealth: Hong Kong overtook Switzerland as the top cross-border wealth hub, driven by mainland China inflows. Asia Tech & Chips: Japan’s chip equipment makers reported a ~10% drop in China sales as export curbs bite, while Moore Threads’ revenue surged on China’s domestic GPU demand. China Economy: State firms are dumping renewable energy assets amid overcapacity, signaling stress in the sector. Regional Trade & Agriculture: Pakistan eyes higher mango exports to China via quality, packaging and supply-chain upgrades; auto financing in Pakistan hit a record Rs369b in May. World Cup & Finance Culture: Tunisia vs Japan headlines the weekend’s World Cup coverage, while investors also watch earnings catalysts like Micron’s upcoming results.

FATF Leadership: India’s Vivek Aggarwal was elected Vice President of the Financial Action Task Force, a first for the country and a boost to its anti-terror financing profile. RBI Financial Inclusion: The RBI revised the Lead Bank Scheme to strengthen district coordination, formalise block-level credit planning, and tighten accountability to improve priority-sector lending. World Bank Jobs Push: The World Bank approved $1.5bn for India’s private-sector job creation reforms, aiming to support millions of youth entering the labour market. India-US Trade Standoff: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the India-US trade deal can’t be implemented until India secures a competitive tariff advantage versus other countries. Energy Security & Renewables: India and Germany reaffirmed renewable energy cooperation under the Green and Sustainable Development partnership to cut fossil import reliance. Asia Markets Watch: NSE flagged monsoon and El Niño risks for India’s 2026 economy, noting trading remains concentrated despite a younger, broader investor base. Bangladesh Investment Drive: PM Tarique Rahman promised support to revive closed state-owned factories and is set to visit Malaysia and China to attract deals. Corporate Moves: Electronics Mart India will close two Hyderabad EBOs as it optimises its retail network. EV JV Approval: Uno Minda got approval for an Inovance Automotive-backed EV powertrain joint venture in India. Gold Flows: Bloomberg said Asian gold demand is holding up even as US ETF investors pull back.

FATF Leadership: India’s Vivek Aggarwal has been elected Vice President of the Financial Action Task Force for July 2026–June 2027, a first for the country and a boost to its anti–money laundering and counter-terror financing profile. World Bank Reform Push: The World Bank cleared a $1.5bn package to support India’s structural reforms and private-sector job creation, targeting reforms that cut compliance burdens and improve predictability for businesses. Big IPO Watch (India): Reliance’s Jio Platforms filed its DRHP for what could be India’s largest IPO, with bankers pointing to a record ~$4bn size, while the company plans to use proceeds partly to repay loans. Banking Oversight: India’s Supreme Court agreed to examine a PIL alleging a Rs 1,500 crore public-sector bank fraud involving asset reconstruction companies settling loans for a fraction of dues. Cross-border Finance: India’s ECB inflows are expected to recover in FY27 as RBI swap incentives and policy support help offset currency and hedging pressures that hurt FY26 registrations. Energy & Industry: India and Germany reaffirmed renewable-energy cooperation for energy security; Japan also plans a $2.3tn public-private investment push by 2040 across strategic sectors. Humanitarian Finance Link: Palestine’s embassy urged India for urgent medical aid under “Aarogya Maitri,” citing Gaza’s healthcare collapse and financial strangulation.

IPO Watch (India): Reliance Jio Platforms has filed draft papers for a Mumbai IPO that could raise about $3.8bn, potentially India’s biggest listing, with proceeds mainly earmarked to repay debt at its telecom unit and fund AI/cloud priorities. Market Policy (India): RBI rate-panel minutes show a “wait and watch” stance after June 5’s hold at 5.25%, citing contained core inflation but warning oil/food risks could shift the outlook. Banking Crime (India): A Union Bank of India chief cashier in south Mumbai was booked for allegedly misappropriating Rs 32.33 lakh after an internal audit found a cash shortfall. Smart Ports (China): China is pushing automation and AI at Beibu Gulf Port, with remote-controlled equipment and real-time data management to boost cargo handling. Corporate Deals (India): L’Oréal is buying a majority stake in Innovist to accelerate growth in India’s beauty market. Regulation (Japan): Japan’s FSA ordered a three-month restriction on Moomoo Securities’ new account operations over compliance and governance gaps. Energy/Trade (Kenya-India): Kenya has opened talks with India to expand oil exploration and upstream investment, including drilling expertise and LPG supply-chain opportunities. Cyber/Finance (Global): A cybersecurity marketing spend benchmark flags rapid sector growth to $375–$400bn by 2030 as threats and AI adoption drive spend. Trade Policy (EU-China): The EU is preparing countervailing duties on Chinese plug-in hybrid EVs to close a tariff loophole.

Japan FX Watch: Japan’s finance chief warned it will take “decisive” action on currency speculation as the yen slips toward 161 per dollar, after record intervention spending of 11.73tn yen helped earlier but losses returned with US dollar strength. Japan Inflation: Core CPI rose 1.4% y/y in May, with fuel subsidies capping energy-driven inflation—keeping pressure on the BOJ’s next rate-hike path. China Banking: China Bank Savings doubled provisions while expanding branches and investing in digital banking, signaling cautious credit risk management. China Markets & Debt Tools: China debuted its first commercial property REITs, raising 20.3bn yuan, and Hong Kong is set to launch offshore China sovereign bond futures on Aug 3 to help global investors hedge. India Banking & Enforcement: India’s CBI searched Kolkata-linked sites in PNB fraud cases involving Tantia Construction, Brahm Alloys and Amrit Feeds. India-France Payments: PM Modi in Paris pushed further expansion of UPI in France to enable instant mutual payments and smoother mobility for students and professionals. ASEAN-Russia Roadmap: ASEAN and Russia adopted a 2026–2030 plan covering trade, investment, energy, connectivity, security and people-to-people cooperation at the Kazan summit. Pacific Women & Food Systems: A new regenerative bioeconomy initiative backs Pacific women entrepreneurs in Fiji and Samoa to turn local biodiversity into premium food products with coaching and market access. AI Deal Shake-up (China): Early Manus backers plan to buy the AI startup back from Meta at $2bn after China ordered the unwind, as scrutiny tightens on advanced AI investment. Energy Security (India): India promoted surface coal/lignite gasification as a route to domestic syngas and fuels, aiming to cut import dependence and boost new industrial value chains.

ASEAN-Russia Summit: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used the Kazan meeting to push deeper ASEAN-Russia cooperation on maritime security, counterterrorism, cyber resilience, and trade/investment links. India Dealflow & Banking: RBI extended Keki Mistry’s interim chair role at HDFC Bank to Sept 18, keeping leadership steady ahead of the bank’s Aug 5 AGM and dividend plans. Healthcare Investment: Bessemer led a $40m funding round for India’s pet healthcare network Vetic to scale clinics, vet-at-home, and AI-driven services. Healthcare M&A: KKR is reported to be in advanced talks to buy at least a $1b stake in Sweden’s Medicover’s India hospital arm, with an IPO process also in play. AI & Markets: Modi told VivaTech that AI should be “all inclusive” for India, while Hitachi and OpenAI announced a partnership to modernise legacy systems and bolster cyber security for financial institutions. Crypto Regulation: Bybit says it is engaging Singapore’s MAS after being added to the Investor Alert List, warning it’s not licensed for local users. Energy/Infrastructure Finance: JBM Ecolife secured INR 750 crore from Motilal Oswal Alternates to expand electric bus deployments across India. Cross-border Tech Infrastructure: Comin Asia and Nokia plan AI-ready data centre infrastructure in Cambodia and Laos, targeting sovereign, scalable deployments.

Capital Markets: India’s NSE filed a draft red herring prospectus for an IPO of up to 148.9 million shares, aiming to raise about Rs 30,000 crore and potentially become India’s biggest corporate listing after years of delays. Banking & Regulation: China’s top securities regulator said it will expand STAR Market listing standards to cover AI firms and step up support for high-quality AI large-model companies going public. Trade & Tariffs: India-UK’s free trade deal (CETA) is set to start on July 15, with tariff cuts to zero for 99% of Indian exports and a parallel social security arrangement for workers. Energy & Infrastructure: Lightsource bp and Contact Energy reached financial close on a 171MWdc Glorit solar PV project in New Zealand, including a 200MWh battery system. FX & Rates: Japan’s government said it’s ready to respond to yen moves “appropriately” as the currency slides amid a hawkish Fed tone. Food & Consumer Finance: Yum China agreed to buy full Pizza Hut China for $1.2b, aiming to expand to 6,000+ restaurants by 2028. Water Stress: Mumbai cut water supply to construction sites and swimming pools and imposed a 20% cut on industrial/commercial users as reservoir levels fall. Geopolitics & Minerals: G7 leaders agreed to coordinate to cut reliance on critical minerals from any single supplier outside the bloc, targeting rare earths and magnets below 60% by 2030.

Indo-Pacific Energy Deal: I Squared and the US DFC are teaming up to launch a $3bn energy infrastructure platform for South and Southeast Asia, with $1.5bn each, aiming to plug power and LNG connectivity gaps. Critical Minerals Push: G7 leaders in Evian set targets to cut dependence on single suppliers—rare earths below 60% by 2030 and toward 50% sooner—while warning they’re prepared to act against economic coercion. China Capital-Market Reform: China’s CSRC unveiled five “Tech-Finance Practice Models” across Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Suzhou and Hangzhou to boost innovation-led growth via capital markets. Yuan Offshore Expansion: China moved to expand offshore yuan trading in Shanghai and added 26 banks to a cross-border digital yuan platform, reinforcing efforts to internationalise the currency. India Bonds Settlement Rules: RBI sources say it prefers foreign investors to trade and settle on the domestic NDS-OM system rather than offshore platforms like Euroclear to avoid fragmented liquidity. Stablecoin Settlement Funding: Trace Finance raised $32m to expand cross-border stablecoin settlement infrastructure across LatAm, the US and Asia-Pacific. India-EU Trade: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said India and the EU are set to sign a free trade deal by year-end, with tariff cuts across most goods. Banking Ownership Reshuffle: Maybank Indonesia plans to buy a controlling stake in insurer AEII as it reorganises to meet Indonesia’s financial conglomerate rules. Corporate/Market Watch: Apple investors are growing impatient with AI delivery timelines, while Japan’s BOJ rate hike kept markets focused on yen and global rates.

Banking & Markets: India’s current account deficit may narrow to 1.6% of GDP in FY27 as lower oil prices and stronger exports help, with ICICI Bank pointing to a May goods export jump and a steadier trade deficit. Regulation & Compliance: India’s ED raided 17 locations tied to Suraksha ARC and related firms, probing suspected irregular YES Bank loan assignments and insolvency process transparency. Capital Markets: The Indian government plans to sell 5% equity in GIC Re via an offer-for-sale this week, with a floor price set at INR352. Energy & Macro: BOJ raised its policy rate to 1% (31-year high), lifting the yen’s pressure and feeding into Asia’s cautious risk tone as investors also weigh the US-Iran peace path for oil and shipping. Insurance: Aon says regulatory reforms are boosting global interest in India’s insurance market, with competition expanding capacity and pushing down premiums. Tech & Payments: India launched UPI in France, while AU Small Finance Bank and Motilal Oswal upgraded their 3-in-1 account experience to reduce fund-transfer friction for trading. Deals & Funding: Crest raised $3.1m pre-seed and ContraVault AI raised $3.1m pre-Series A; Sarvam reportedly secured $234m Series B to build India’s sovereign AI stack. Energy Transition: Suzlon launched its 5MW S175 wind turbine, positioning it for India’s next wind growth phase. Cross-border Trade: Asian markets edged higher as investors digested US-Iran deal optimism and awaited central bank decisions.

ASEAN-Russia Summit: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim heads to Kazan for the June 17-18 ASEAN-Russia commemorative summit, with talks expected to cover trade, investment, energy and the digital economy, and a Russia-ASEAN business forum on the agenda. FX & Oil Spillovers: Asian currencies rebounded after a US-Iran peace deal revived hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting energy-sensitive markets; the Philippine peso led gains as oil prices slid. Central Banking Watch: The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% (highest since 1995) to tackle inflation risks from oil and a weak yen, while markets largely shrugged. Digital Yuan Push: Standard Chartered China signed up as a direct participant in China’s CBETS cross-border e-CNY transfer services, aiming to speed settlement and expand yuan use. India Telegram Crackdown: India temporarily restricted Telegram ahead of the NEET-UG retest, citing organised cheating rackets; access stays limited until June 22 and message editing until June 30. Capital Markets & Trade: Pakistan’s SECP chief said issues with Chinese stock investors are resolved, paving the way for “trust lifting” and potential cross-border ETF listings. Energy & Industry: UBS linked China’s coal price surge to a Shanxi mine disaster and subsequent safety shutdowns, tightening supply and feeding price rises. AI & Cybersecurity: SoftBank and OpenAI plan joint cybersecurity services in Japan to defend critical infrastructure from advanced AI-enabled attacks.

ASEAN-ANZ Trade: Over 80 civil society groups urge ASEAN governments to review and remove Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) clauses from the updated AANZFTA, with talks set to start in Melbourne on 24 June. China Economy & Industry: China rolled out a three-year plan to cut energy use and carbon emissions across nine heavy industries, while railway data showed freight and passenger traffic rising in the first five months. Japan Rates & Markets: The Bank of Japan is set to lift rates to a 31-year high, keeping investors focused on how the US-Iran peace deal may affect inflation expectations. India Capital Inflows: RBI opened listed Indian equities to all foreign individual investors, and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman signalled more steps to boost inflows if needed. Banking Watch: HDFC Bank’s board review found “no merit” in concerns raised by former chairman Atanu Chakraborty, and Nomura flagged HDFC Bank as a potential top beneficiary of the RBI’s FCNR(B) deposit scheme. Precious Metals: Gold held steady as investors awaited details of the US-Iran peace deal, while India’s silver imports plunged 87% in May after tighter curbs. Crypto & Crime: Southeast Asia’s pushback on crypto scams is driving criminals to reroute activity, with Sri Lanka warning of an alarming rise in cybercrime. Energy Transition in APAC: Southeast Asia is eyeing interconnected power grids, with Chinese firms positioning themselves as key partners in cross-border clean energy buildout. Regional Diplomacy: Nepal’s foreign minister met China’s Wang Yi in Beijing after a visit to India, underscoring shifting leverage as Kathmandu balances both sides.